Why the US Should Never Intervene in Syria.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Demitry Rogozon recently described Western states foreign policy in the Islamic world as “like a monkey holding a grenade”.  It’s a slap in the face, but arguably a colorful and accurate description.  Since the early 1960’s presidential administration after administration have followed the same US strategic interests with a history of policy failures which have generated exorbitant counter terrorism costs in the name of oil, and left the Israeli-Palestinian conflict unresolved. With the likelihood of foreign oil independence by 2020, it is time for the United States to rethink its foreign policy in the Middle East.  

The Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns proved that we have little understanding of the complex sectarian dynamics that exist in the Islamic world.  And as a result, US interventions have been costly failures which have destabilized the natural dynamics of the region.  And with no economic interest, further justification of any interaction in the Middle East is unconscionable.  

US Foreign policy in the region must be clearly defined.  Firstly, the Arab League must take responsibility for policing interaction between Arab nations.  The Arab league must also take responsibility for finding solutions to sectarian conflicts.  And to the extent that the Arab nations are willing to involve Turkey and Iran, perhaps an organization with a wider pan-Islamic scope needs to be defined.  Secondly, if such a shift is to take place, US policy toward Israel needs to be clearly defined.  The US must make the Islamic world understand that any action against Israel is considered an action against the United States.  Israel should be given top level access to US weapons capability and intelligence so that it has every ability to defend itself first.  Additionally, both the Arab nations and Israel need to move beyond a 67 year old stalemate, and engage in diplomatic relations aimed at developing the region for mutual benefit.  Israel must be perceived as a main stakeholder in the region as well.  

If the United States exits the region, a void will be created, naturally forcing the Arab states to organize for the benefit of the region.  Will an exit cause the region to spiral into non stop sectarian violence?  The answer is possibly, but the violence will get resolved faster than current initiatives can promise.  And with the World looking on, the real Arab Spring will take place, because regional stakeholders will be forced to redraw outdated lines created by the United States and Britain, and establish alliances that stakeholders will create themselves, and are willing to maintain.  

Syria is effectively a failed state run by an illegitimate dictator.  Lines need to be redrawn in Syria.  That is what the current conflict is about.  And Jordan is a state with a monarchy whose legitimacy is basically coming to an end.  Jordan has the potential to evolve into a democratic state and benefit from population growth from Palestinian and Syrian migration.  Turkey, which is not an Arab League member, but certainly a regional stakeholder will influence the region since it shares so many common borders.  And Iran, a non Arab, Persian nation will have to reconsider its foreign policy in the region, which at present is in imperialist.  

The emergent Middle East would consist of four key influence points: the Arab nations, Israel, Persia (Iran), with Turkey to the northwest.  Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Egypt would be the more significant voices with the broader Arab League being responsible for coordination of Arab affairs.  Security, economic and social development should be governed the four regional groups.  

 

That is a comprehensive US foreign policy for the region.  The US should engage in diplomatic efforts to share this outline with all four stakeholders, and then provide a scheduled exit from the region.  The oil rich nations in the region should fund development.  In light of that we can see the absurdity of current policy.  The US is considering to engage in a third front, Syria.  This will only serve to destabilize the region even more, cost the US more money, and ultimately result in more terrorist attacks against US interests.  

From a US perspective, with national debt of $18.7 Trillion dollars, a host of failed domestic policies, and 47 million Americans on food stamps, the United States can no longer be the World’s police force.  Attempting to do so is actually contrary to US interests since it weakens the economy.  Many forget that prior to World War II, the United States was a much smaller economy.  And at that time, we played a smaller role in foreign affairs, at times being isolationist.  We should not go so far as to become isolationist, but a more reserved presence in the World is prudent at this juncture.  It changes little since we are still the most powerful nation militarily and economically.  We just need to step back and let nations develop for themselves.  

This will shine an interesting spotlight on Islam as well.  It’s ironic that the Islamic fundamentalists talk of a 100 year plan and the world coming under Sharia law when Islamic states are in such a poor state of development.  Women have no rights, human rights violations are commonplace, there is sectarian violence all over the region.  They need to focus on their own back yard.  Perhaps having to focus so intently on their own problems will absorb their energies and inhibit the destructive interaction with the rest of the world.  And perhaps no longer having the excuse of the US on Islamic soil will make it difficult for them to continue with the ungodly acts of terrorism that have been perpetrated against Western nations.

The United States is paying an expensive price for its Middle East policies.  We now spend hundreds of billions in intelligence gathering to defend against terrorist threats that we effectively created ourselves.  Drone attacks and bombing result in collateral damage that is taken personally!  You would think that with so many decades in the region, and billions spent on the State Department, we’d have become experts in the Middle East, and have come to an effective foreign policy already.  It’s time to get a lot smarter!  We cannot go on spending hundreds of billions to defend against a radicalized idealist $50 home cooked bomb.  

President Obama has taken his place in the long line of Presidents that have perpetuated the inept foreign policy of our nation in the Middle East.  US credibility will be preserved by communication of a comprehensive foreign policy.  Showing intelligence will regain the World’s respect.