Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Demitry Rogozon recently described Western
states foreign policy in the Islamic world as “like a monkey holding a
grenade”. It’s a slap in the face, but
arguably a colorful and accurate description.
Since the early 1960’s presidential administration after administration
have followed the same US strategic interests with a history of policy failures
which have generated exorbitant counter terrorism costs in the name of oil, and
left the Israeli-Palestinian conflict unresolved. With the likelihood of
foreign oil independence by 2020, it is time for the United States to rethink
its foreign policy in the Middle East.
The Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns proved that we have little understanding
of the complex sectarian dynamics that exist in the Islamic world. And as a result, US interventions have been
costly failures which have destabilized the natural dynamics of the region. And with no economic interest, further justification
of any interaction in the Middle East is unconscionable.
US Foreign policy in the region must be clearly defined. Firstly, the Arab League must take responsibility
for policing interaction between Arab nations.
The Arab league must also take responsibility for finding solutions to
sectarian conflicts. And to the extent
that the Arab nations are willing to involve Turkey and Iran, perhaps an
organization with a wider pan-Islamic scope needs to be defined. Secondly, if such a shift is to take place,
US policy toward Israel needs to be clearly defined. The US must make the Islamic world understand
that any action against Israel is considered an action against the United
States. Israel should be given top level
access to US weapons capability and intelligence so that it has every ability
to defend itself first. Additionally,
both the Arab nations and Israel need to move beyond a 67 year old stalemate,
and engage in diplomatic relations aimed at developing the region for mutual
benefit. Israel must be perceived as a
main stakeholder in the region as well.
If the United States exits the region, a void will be created, naturally
forcing the Arab states to organize for the benefit of the region. Will an exit cause the region to spiral into
non stop sectarian violence? The answer
is possibly, but the violence will get resolved faster than current initiatives
can promise. And with the World looking
on, the real Arab Spring will take place, because regional stakeholders will be
forced to redraw outdated lines created by the United States and Britain, and
establish alliances that stakeholders will create themselves, and are willing
to maintain.
Syria is effectively a failed state run by an illegitimate dictator. Lines need to be redrawn in Syria. That is what the current conflict is
about. And Jordan is a state with a monarchy
whose legitimacy is basically coming to an end.
Jordan has the potential to evolve into a democratic state and benefit
from population growth from Palestinian and Syrian migration. Turkey, which is not an Arab League member,
but certainly a regional stakeholder will influence the region since it shares
so many common borders. And Iran, a non
Arab, Persian nation will have to reconsider its foreign policy in the region,
which at present is in imperialist.
The emergent Middle East would consist of four key influence points: the
Arab nations, Israel, Persia (Iran), with Turkey to the northwest. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Egypt would
be the more significant voices with the broader Arab League being responsible
for coordination of Arab affairs.
Security, economic and social development should be governed the four
regional groups.
That is a comprehensive US foreign policy for the region. The US should engage in diplomatic efforts to
share this outline with all four stakeholders, and then provide a scheduled exit from the region. The oil rich nations in the region should
fund development. In light of that
we can see the absurdity of current policy.
The US is considering to engage in a third front, Syria. This will only serve to destabilize the
region even more, cost the US more money, and ultimately result in more terrorist
attacks against US interests.
From a US perspective, with national debt of $18.7 Trillion dollars, a host
of failed domestic policies, and 47 million Americans on food stamps, the
United States can no longer be the World’s police force. Attempting to do so is actually contrary to
US interests since it weakens the economy. Many forget that prior to World War II, the
United States was a much smaller economy.
And at that time, we played a smaller role in foreign affairs, at times being
isolationist. We should not go so far as
to become isolationist, but a more reserved presence in the World is prudent at
this juncture. It changes little since
we are still the most powerful nation militarily and economically. We just need to step back and let nations
develop for themselves.
This will shine an interesting spotlight on Islam as well. It’s ironic that the Islamic fundamentalists
talk of a 100 year plan and the world coming under Sharia law when Islamic
states are in such a poor state of development.
Women have no rights, human rights violations are commonplace, there is
sectarian violence all over the region.
They need to focus on their own back yard. Perhaps having to focus so intently on their
own problems will absorb their energies and inhibit the destructive interaction
with the rest of the world. And perhaps
no longer having the excuse of the US on Islamic soil will make it difficult for
them to continue with the ungodly acts of terrorism that have been perpetrated
against Western nations.
The United States is paying an expensive price for its Middle East
policies. We now spend hundreds of
billions in intelligence gathering to defend against terrorist threats that we effectively
created ourselves. Drone attacks and
bombing result in collateral damage that is taken personally!
You would think that with so many decades in the region, and billions
spent on the State Department, we’d have become experts in the Middle East, and
have come to an effective foreign policy already. It’s time to get a lot smarter! We cannot go on spending hundreds of billions
to defend against a radicalized idealist $50 home cooked bomb.
President Obama has taken his place in the long line of Presidents that have
perpetuated the inept foreign policy of our nation in the Middle East. US
credibility will be preserved by communication of a comprehensive foreign policy. Showing intelligence will regain the World’s
respect.
